Mr. Schwarzenegger gives canoe theory a new test

12/25/05

COMMENTARY, Thomas D. Elias

Gov. Schwarzenegger is giving the old canoeing plan a try, catering for awhile to the GOP conservative base, then tossing bones to environmentalists and hard-core Democrats. The question, is, can he be a better canoer than Gray Davis.

The "canoe theory" of politics goes like this: You paddle a little to the left, and then you paddle a little to the right, and that's how you keep your canoe (or your political career) from capsizing.

This ultra-practical way of thinking was first expounded in the 1970s by ex-Gov. Jerry Brown, the current Oakland mayor who's now running for attorney general. So it was no surprise when his onetime chief of staff, Gray Davis, became a prime exponent of the idea when he moved into the governor's office in 1999.

Now it's Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger who's giving the old canoeing plan a try, catering for awhile to the conservative base of the Republican Party, then tossing some bones to environmentalists and hard-core Democrats.

The question, of course, is whether Mr. Schwarzenegger can be a better canoer than Mr. Davis.

During his first term, Mr. Davis signed dozens of business-friendly bills into law, appointed corporate executives to top jobs in his administration and on nominally independent agencies like the state Public Utilities Commission. Then he signed other bills helping labor unions, ordered the noxious additive MTBE removed from gasoline sold in California, and okayed drivers' licenses for illegal immigrants.

For all his efforts to please both the left and right, Mr. Davis got little besides public opprobrium. Voters focused more on his campaign fundraising practices and what even some former staffers now admit amounted to selling public policy for political donations. When they got the chance, they ousted him in the 2003 recall election.

Mr. Schwarzenegger, of course, does not discuss canoes even as he paddles on both sides of his.

In his first two years as governor, he has signed almost every bill supported by the state Chamber of Commerce that reached him and vetoed all but one or two that the chamber labeled "job-killers."

He nixed proposals to raise the minimum wage, reversed a Davis decision to allow drivers' licenses for illegal immigrants, vetoed the notion of gay marriages and a plan to expand public health care to 800,000 uninsured children.

But he also okayed several bills giving homosexual domestic partners more rights, signed a new law banning commercial ships from dumping sewage or burning garbage near the coast and supported an apology to Mexicans who were illegally deported during the 1940s.

It was a classic study in paddling a little to the left and then a little to the right in an effort to keep his political canoe headed straight ahead.

The canoeing continued after bill-signing season as Mr. Schwarzenegger all fall pleased hard-core Republicans by backing ballot initiatives that aimed to diminish the power of public employee unions, make it harder for teachers to get tenure and require parental notification before doctors perform abortions on girls under age 18.

No sooner was the election over than the governor put out word that he will focus next year on large public works projects including an overhaul of ports and some freeways, plus seismic retrofitting of many hospitals.

Mr. Schwarzenegger floated a trial balloon about a possible $50 billion infrastructure bond issue that would shift the cost of keeping up the state to future generations.

He indicated he will also stress homelessness and health insurance for the 6.6 million uninsured Californians as key issues in 2006, with special emphasis on poor children. These are all ideas dear to mainstream Democrats.

As he campaigns for re-election next year, voters will decide whether this political mish-mash works better for Mr. Schwarzenegger than it did for Mr. Davis.

Some Democrats doubt it will.

"Our daily tracking polls show there's a lot of anger out there against him," says Garry South, former senior adviser to Gray Davis who now is performing similar duty for state Controller Steve Westly as he seeks the Democratic nomination to run against Mr. Schwarzenegger. "He turned into a partisan name-caller over the last year, a Republican name-caller in an essentially Democratic state. The canoe thing won't work for him now. It doesn't get people back."

But it surely will make 2006 an interesting political year.

The author is a longtime observer of California politics.